African and French Victories at the Tour; Viewing Options Decline; the Effectiveness of Ketones; A Lack of U.S. Racing; Good and Bad News for Cycling Viewership; Women's Giro Coming

Key Takeaways:

●        French and African Victories Dominate Opening of Tour

●        Tour Viewing Options in the U.S. Decline

●        Update on the Effectiveness of Ketones

●        A Paucity of American Racing

●        Good News and Bad News for Cycling Viewership

●        Women’s Racing is Still Happening!

Biniam Girmay or Eritrea made history as he became the first Black African to win a stage of the Tour de France today, sneaking past Mads Pedersen and edging out Fernando Gaviria to take the first sprint stage. And French riders made near-history as the Tour de France got underway, thanks to Romain Bardet’s perfectly timed herculean attack on stage one, and Kévin Vauquelin’s dominant breakaway performance on stage two. Given the fact that the first two wins came from breakaways with the help of clever team tactics, all three victories suggest that the smaller-budget teams are finding ways to compete against the richer teams – an encouraging development for the sport. Bardet and his DSM team had been drawing up a tactical plan for him to win the first stage and take yellow since the route was released back in October.

The question of who will emerge victorious in Nice in three weeks now seems murkier than it did three days ago – as it became quickly apparent on stage two that Tadej Pogačar has a real fight on his hands to complete his Giro-Tour double. After Pogačar laid down a searing attack near the end of the stage on the brutally steep San Luca climb in Bologna, Jonas Vingegaard showed he is back and seemingly fully recovered – by immediately responding and latching onto his wheel. Considering this was basically the first time since last year’s Tour that another GC rider was able to successfully respond to a Pogačar attack, it was welcome news for neutral fans hoping for an exciting and thrilling three weeks of racing. It should also be noted that, to our knowledge, this is the first race ever in which all of the sport’s venerable “Big Six” (Pogačar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Van der Poel, Van Aert and Roglic) have taken the start line – more on that below.

An interesting quirk of the early French success is that it’s happening in Italy. While it may seem odd to some spectators to watch the Tour de France kick off in another country, particularly with the heat wave sweeping the southern European at the moment, economic realities suggest that out-of-country starts may become more common in the future. In fact, with the fee for a foreign start recently pegged at €5.5 million, and the fee for towns to host a stage running roughly €70,000 for a start and €120,000 for a finish, ASO can make more money on a four-day foreign start than the entire rest of the race combined.

While the casual French public may be captivated by this wave of stage-win successes, the race may struggle to attract casual American viewers, after the late scratch of 2023 Vuelta a España winner and media darling Sepp Kuss. Indeed, there are only three American starters this year (Sean Quinn, Matteo Jorgenson and Neilson Powless), despite the fact that American cycling is boasting more top-level talent in more than a generation. And, while Jorgenson presents the very real possibility of an American GC candidate, the resurgence of Vingegaard on stage two probably means that he is looking at three weeks of selfless domestique duty – a fate that seems reserved for nearly American rider, no matter their level of talent. 

And making things worse, North American viewing options are less than ideal this year. With the first weekend in the books, there is as much chatter among fans as to how to watch the Tour as to who might win it. The loss of GCN+ and the contraction of available sources to Peacock, Hulu, Sling, and opportunistic VPN services has led to both fan reluctance (additional subscription costs) and an inability to accurately capture the viewing habits of fans who can actually tune into the content. During the Tour, we’ll be consulting with our broadcasting and business partners to gain a better sense of how this Tour’s content consumption compares with prior years – hopefully shedding some light on new opportunities to pull fans and content together in meaningful and profitable ways. One thing is certain though: the ability of a sport to connect with and hook new fans into its narrative is an important indicator of that sport’s marketing potential to sell everything from soft drinks, cars, electronics, or bikes and cycling gear for the masses.

The presence of pro men’s cycling’s “Big Six” should be driving that viewership up, and as we’ve mentioned in previously, the sport should be pushing for these kinds of consistent racing matchups to heighten fan interest and broadcast value. Our friends at Wielerflits examined this topic over the weekend, and with the bold headline, “This Tour de France shows what is wrong with cycling,” directly challenged the sport to maximize this kind of excitement through careful calendar reforms that encourage teams to present their best riders at the best races. While there is a long tradition of having different races for different specialists – something which dissuades certain top riders from competing in specific races they aren’t well-suited to win – calendar reforms can encourage more head-to-head matchups in the future. From Wielerflits perspective, such changes and enhancement of the star power would actually benefit any ongoing efforts to revive One Cycling and create business and competitive synergies with the sport’s dominant organizer, ASO. For more on this topic, we encourage you to read the full opinion on Wielerflits (use of Google’s Translate or similar language plug-in recommended). 

There was an interesting article in the Italian media regarding final TV audience figures for the Giro – with both some good and some worrying insights. The good news is that the figures were up slightly, from 1.32 million per stage last year to 1.36 million this year. But what may be more worrying is that, for the first time in history, for some stages the average audience was over 70. A brief look at the historical trend seems to show that the typical audience age is increasing each year, suggesting that it is the same group of people watching – while they age. This same trend was also noted for other races by our colleague Daam van Reeth in his 2022 book The Economics of Pro Cycling. This means that if the average viewer age is 70, for every 40-year-old watching, they are joined by three 80-year-olds. The major problem by an aging audience is sponsorship-related. If major brands have to decide on investing in a sport with a TV audience averaging 70 years old, or a sport with a much younger TV audience, the choice will probably be made pretty quickly. Cycling has been debating this existential question for about 20 years now, but it appears that little progress is being made.

A recent article and the high-visibility use of ketone supplements in pro cycling has kept the controversial topic front and center — especially as many riders will be publicly using these products during the ongoing Tour. The article refreshes several points about the products from the perspective of the research team which developed the first commercially-available formulation, as well as insights from several WorldTour team performance directors. Among those who highlight the benefits of ketones, the narrative has shifted from actual in-flight boosts in athletic output — something which most recent studies have minimized — to a new doctrine of recovery in which carefully timed consumption can catalyze deeper recovery from racing and training efforts. A secondary shift is the notion of cognitive performance improvement — a line of research with positive findings which has largely redefined the ketone supplement landscape. But nestled in the article are two items worth focusing on: the high cost of research studies, and the lack of key data points which could lay the bigger questions of safety, efficacy, and secondary effects to rest. Given that many scientists like UAE’s Iñigo San Millán and governance advisers in endurance sports caution against using ketones, but players in the multi-billion dollar supplement market have their entire economic world at stake by having athletes “sell” the product, this will remain a hot topic.

Pivoting away from the Tour, there are actually a few other UCI and national-level pro races taking place throughout July, including the mountainous men’s Tour of Austria and a hotly anticipated Giro d’Italia “Donne” for women. Here in North America, not much is going on except for the sole survivor of the “criterium series” war: the American Criterium Cup. The Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, and Chicago stops of this season-long competition are on tap for July. With the Olympic team selections finalized and National Championships settled, and with the Maryland Cycling Classic canceled for this year, there are only a few regional categorized events scattered across the country. While multi-event racing weeks like the recent Tour of America’s Dairyland and fixtures like the Armed Forces Cycling Classic help to bridge the summer gaps, there are precious few events where new talent can be discovered or showcased. Furthermore, the physical distances between events presents a barrier for developing those talented riders with consistent and continuous competitive opportunities. Will the National Criterium League (NCL) make a comeback? Can intrepid promoters work with USA Cycling to build a stronger calendar for 2025? Or has the “game” mostly been outsourced to Europe, where the popularity and availability of amateur racing may actually be suppressing talent development back home?

The Women’s WorldTour stopped in Germany for its final pre-Giro Donne tune-up stage race where Human Powered Health’s Ruth Edwards defended the lead she earned in the race’s stage five time trial to take overall victory. While many of the WWT’s biggest stars weren’t present, the elite level race featured many of the top teams and names like Lucinda Brand and Kasia Niewiadoma were in the GC hunt. Given the results at the recent Tour de Suisse (dominated by SDWorx-Protime’s Demi Vollering), one hopes that the Giro Donne will be every bit as exciting — if only it doesn’t get overshadowed by the ongoing fireworks in the men’s Tour de France. And HPH’s Edwards deserves accolades; she successfully rejoined the women’s peloton after retiring in 2021 – at an opportune time when the sport is turning the corner in terms of popularity, marketing strength, and cultural relevance. If nothing else, it shows just how talented the athletes are in women’s cycling and presents a tantalizing clue as to what kind of rider Anna van der Breggen might be in 2025 when she makes her comeback.