Competitive Parity in Sports; Del Toro in Giro Lead; Lifetime Bans; Rwanda Worlds Still Shaky; Itzulia Women; Lessons from the WNBA ...
Key Takeaways:
● Competitive Parity in Pro Sports
● Young Mexican Del Toro Takes Giro Lead
● “Lifetime” Bans in Sport
● Rwanda Worlds Still Looking Shaky
● Itzulia Women’s Race
● WNBA Lessons for Cycling
Competitive parity in major professional league sports has never been higher. With the victory yesterday by the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Denver Nuggets, it was guaranteed that the NBA would see its seventh new champion crowned in the last seven years. This parity has been achieved by a variety of mechanisms – most important among them being the latest collective bargaining agreement and various financial penalties to discourage big spenders. The National Football League has also been very successful in achieving a high level of parity, by means of TV revenue sharing, a strong salary cap, the draft system, and a strong collective bargaining agreement. All of these efforts are, at the bottom line, geared towards trying to make the sport more exciting for fans – to make outcomes less predictable, and thereby draw in fan interest. This is in dramatic contrast to the situation decades ago when long-term dynasties ruled many of the biggest sports; it is also in strong contrast to today’s sport of professional cycling. Over the years, we have extensively described the overwhelming dominance of a small handful of riders in this sport, as well as the complete lack of an influential rider’s association to drive collective bargaining or any serious salary cap discussions at the UCI’s governance table. Despite frequent calls to develop these capabilities within cycling, there has never been any real progress. And with two or three already-dominant teams seemingly poised to pour more and more money into the sport (see below), we question how this will affect the level of parity – and hence the level of audience interest – in the years going forward.
The policy of a “lifetime ban” due to athlete actions that sully a sport’s reputation or harm its competitive integrity was redefined last week by Major League Baseball. A key question is: could it impact the wider sporting world? MLB’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, announced that 15 deceased players would be eligible for enshrinement in the game’s Hall of Fame, and Pete Rose – alternately lauded as baseball’s all-time hit leader or vilified as a gambling addict who bet on games in which he played and/or managed – will be foremost among the new candidates. Manfred stated that MLB’s new position centers around the definition of “lifetime” – suggesting that such bans must end when an athlete dies, because they no longer pose a threat to the sport. However, that sentiment was not echoed by many sports commentators who claimed it would dilute the power of punitive bans in sport – especially the “nuclear” option reserved for those who fall so egregiously afoul of the rules that they are permanently barred from any participation in the sport. A direct allegory is WADA’s anti-doping code: cheat in your sport, get caught, and face a suspension for your actions; cheat bad enough or often enough (or both) and earn a lifetime ban.
Professional cycling has its fair share of banished athletes, none more prominent than Lance Armstrong who – under the WADA code and as set forth in USADA’s Reasoned Decision – earned a lifetime ban from all sports under WADA’s purview. An interesting parallel is that Rose and Armstrong had already retired from competition when their bans were determined, and thus they conveyed just two main consequences: public humiliation, and a warning for others who might commit future transgressions. Armstrong has maintained a larger-than-life public cycling presence with his podcast and video content that often focuses on race analysis, riders, teams and informed opinion. This is not materially different from Rose’s post-playing career of making paid appearances, commentary (not coaching) on hitting, and signing memorabilia. In both cases, banishment might have impacted their earning potential but did not notably reduce their presence or influence. This begs the question whether a lifetime ban is meaningful given the limited power of sporting bodies to enforce economic restrictions on banned athletes in the first place. And while Manfred’s edict might seem theoretically correct, what impact will it have on individuals considering making Rose-sized mistakes in the future? MLB’s move to potentially enshrine Rose with its highest honor could open the door for rehabilitation and recognition of banned athletes in other league sports for their triumphs and not their failings. And by extension to global Olympic sports, could WADA-banned athletes eventually find a return path to grace?
The 2025 Giro d’Italia has already served up unpredictable racing that bucks modern cycling’s trend of ultra-scientific, “marginal gains” formulaic matchups in its biggest events. Despite the UAE super-team holding both the race lead and the runner-up position (along with two other of the top ten sports), the opening nine stages of the race have made it clear that the battle for the Maglia Rosa will be a more complex and wide-open contest than predicted. UAE’s early GC dominance has been exemplified by 21-year-old Mexican rider Isaac del Toro, who ripped off the front on Stage 9’s gravel and finished second behind an emotional Wout van Aert to take the lead. Van Aert’s first win of the 2025 season in the iconic Piazza del Campo in Siena was expected given his strengths on mixed surface races, but otherwise, nothing has gone according to plan. UAE’s erstwhile designated leader Juan Ayuso limped home with a bloody knee after being caught up in a mid-stage crash over a minute down on his teammate, while heavy pre-race favorite Primož Roglič similarly lost over two minutes due to a crash and subsequent mechanical. With UAE now attempting to balance the ambitions of two young stars, along with a phalanx of former Grand Tour winners bunched together behind (Roglič, Richard Carapaz, Egan Bernal, and Simon Yates), their defense of the jersey will be anything but straightforward, and fans could be in for two thrilling weeks of racing.
The sight of 21-year-old Del Toro in the race lead raises the question if we are witnessing the rise of yet another young superstar. After all, not many riders that age have the ability to remain high in the standings through the first week, then take the overall lead thanks to elite positioning skills that allowed him to avoid a crash, raw power to drop Egan Bernal, and endurance to push Wout van Aert all the way to the line. It’s possible that Del Toro could falter in the difficult third week on the very long road to Stage 21 in Rome, but if he were to hold on he would become just the second rider in over forty years behind teammate Tadej Pogačar to win a Grand Tour before the age of 22. Witnessing this level of excellence from two riders of that age would lend further support to the idea that young riders are taking over the sport and would highlight an acute problem created by UAE Team Emirates. After years of superior recruitment and rider investment compared to the rest of the sport, the team has seemingly hit “peak GC contender” status – with elite established riders like João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, and Brandon McNulty not only struggling to find space to contend for Grand Tours behind Pogačar, but also young, recently unknown prospects. This talent logjam is unlike anything we’ve ever seen, even at the peak of the Team Sky era. This creates unfortunate competitive circumstances and potential management challenges for the team and might also be damaging for the sport: instead of oxygenating races by having these riders race against each other, nearly half of the top ten riders are all on the same team. If there were ever an example of why the sport’s stakeholders need to at least explore the idea of budget restrictions, it would be this display of UAE’s extreme dominance in terms of monopolizing top young riders.
The 2025 UCI Road Championships in Rwanda are still facing significant political risks. A ceasefire was recently brokered and temporarily stabilized the geopolitical crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, but the situation remains poised to boil over into a multi-nation regional conflict. The momentary respite in the conflict allowed aid into the region but tensions between the DRC, the M23 rebels, and Rwanda continue to escalate. Dissident DRC political leaders have aligned with M23 to stoke flames of a new civil war, dozens of rebel groups not party to the ceasefire are making inroads, and all sides are using the relative calm to re-arm, dig in, and prepare for battle. As we relayed in our special issue on Rwanda earlier this year, much of the strife was stoked, initiated by, and benefits Rwanda itself and a flashpoint seems inevitable as the DRC courts the U.S. and China for on-the-ground military support. The DRC seeks help to push back on the advancing rebels and retake the Kivu region in exchange for vast, favorable mining concessions of the invaluable coltan, gold, and lithium resources fueling the land-grab. Should international powers throw weight behind either Rwanda or the DRC – or in the emerging scenario, both sides simultaneously – the conflict could become an even hotter conflagration. More than seven million Congolese have already been displaced and (conservatively estimated) more than ten thousand civilians and combatants have been killed in the fighting just over 100 miles away from Kigali. And still there is no apparent official position on a “Plan B” from the UCI for its flagship event, even as some of its most powerful member nations like Belgium have been diplomatically expelled from Rwanda and others are reportedly reducing their participation.
The three-day Itzulia Women’s race in the Basque Country provided another exciting outing for the ongoing Women’s WorldTour and another opportunity for Demi Vollering (FDJ) to demonstrate her top stage racing form. The first two hilly stages were won by SDWorx-Protime’s Mischa Bredewold with her incredible sprint, proving that she is yet another consistent arrow in her team’s already-loaded quiver for any bunch finish – especially those contested over hillier terrain and heavier courses that don’t favor the team’s other world class finisher, Lorena Wiebes. Vollering bided time and unleashed a stage and race winning attack on day three, easily making up the GC difference on a summit finish to take the race by 48 seconds from Bredewold and Ceratizit’s surprising Canadian rider, Sarah Van Dam. The podium was a bittersweet consolation for her team; Ceratizit had announced earlier in the week that it would cease its long-standing sponsorship of the team at the end of 2025. Hopefully, Van Dam’s prominent WWT showing on Sunday helps in the search of a replacement sponsor for the team’s management. Next up: the Vuelta a Burgos. Will Vollering be able to sustain her form and make it a hat trick (winner in ‘23 and ‘24) at this short stage race?
On the topic of women’s cycling and its potential to be a global icon in women’s pro sports, the start of the WNBA season has provided clear examples of a path forward. The league’s new media deal and broader sponsorship alignments are increasing fan and consumer engagement. Driving this wave of popularity are player rivalries and presence in media campaigns: the “Caitlin Clark” effect – so named for the Indiana Fever superstar – hasn’t slowed down and her competitive battles with other players like Chicago’s Angel Reese have elevated media interest. That momentum is bolstered by Dallas rookie sensation Paige Bueckers as she competes against veterans like New York’s Sabrina Stewart. The context of WNBA player and team rivalries stoking fan anticipation is a model that the UCI’s Women’s WorldTour could achieve through similar moves to broaden the reach and accessibility of racing content, in parallel with sponsor engagement that increases name recognition of riders and their teams. Pro cycling has a narrow window in which it can maximize the genuine competitive animosity amongst its strongest assets – particularly Vollering’s prime years, Anna van der Breggen’s comeback, and impacts of new stars like Puck Pieterse and Cat Ferguson – yet this is currently under-developed in the WWT model. Sponsors already burdened with team investments and riders who are focused on their performances are having to commit limited resources to popularizing their own sport. While there are legitimate questions about WWT team parity, more coordination and investment can help push the sport’s popularity, invigorate its talent pipeline, and create financial stability.