Giro Starts, Vuelta Femenina Wraps; Significance of the EPL Salary Cap Talks; WADA's Crisis Continues; New Drugs - Old Objectives? The Future of U.S. Road Racing

Key Takeaways:

●        Giro Gets Underway With a Different Approach; Vuelta Femenina Shines

●        Significance of Premier League Salary Cap Discussions

●        …But Money Isn’t Everything

●        WADA’s Anti-doping Crisis Continues

●        …New Drugs, Old Objectives?

●        The Future of U.S. Road Racing

The first few days of the Giro continued the quiet revolution of grand tours balancing their routes with stages that produce aggressive racing and that can create early gaps between GC contenders, which generate intrigue and enhance fan interest. Tadej Pogačar, the superstar pre-race favorite, was clearly keen to take advantage of this course design – racing extremely aggressively, finishing second and first on the two stages, and taking a quick 45-second lead over prime rivals Geraint Thomas and Dani Martínez. This week will see the Giro return to a more traditional sprint stage format until Friday’s time trial (although Pogačar’s late attack in stage 3 on what was supposed to be a routine sprint might suggest otherwise).

With Pogačar already enjoying a good lead and looking strong enough to hold it all the way to Rome, it might seem like this approach has taken the suspense out of the GC battle. On the flip side, Pogačar’s competitors know that he is stronger on straight-forward uphill finishes, so this may produce more aggressive and interesting racing later in the race. And, by starting grand tours with difficult opening weekends and adding hilly features to the early sprint stages – instead of jumping directly into pancake flat bunch sprints – organizers appear to have successfully blunted the carnage that the opening sprint stages were consistently marred by just a few seasons ago.

While the Giro’s start stole much of the sport’s limelight over the weekend, the Vuelta Femenina concluded with Demi Vollering emphatically winning her first individual race and stage race of 2024.  The week-long Spanish event kicked off the women’s grand tour season, and its balanced course yielded stage wins by Alison Jackson and Kristen Faulkner, two by Marianne Vos and strong riding by Lidl-Trek to position Elisa Longo Borghini for a podium run. However, it was Vollering – coming into form at the right time after a subdued spring campaign and unnecessarily public team politics – who stamped her authority on the outcome with two superlative mountaintop stage wins, including the final stage at the Valdesqui resort. The racing was overall evenly matched, underscoring the sentiment that SDWorx may be the strongest team on paper but not dominantly so. Riejanne Markus (Visma-Lab) secured second overall and highlighted her quality as a future grand tour star, and climber Evita Muzic (FDJ-Suez) secured a mountain stage to announce her elite arrival. We hope to see similar fireworks when the women begin their Itzulia tour on May 10.

English Premier League shareholders met in London last week and made the fairly revolutionary decision to push ahead with plans for a hard spending cap – part of a new set of “squad cost” rules that could come into effect as early as next year. The measure is intended to prevent the league’s richest clubs from egregiously outspending the smaller clubs and destroy the league’s competitive balance. If the measure is approved at the annual meeting in June, it would be the first time an “American Style” salary cap has successfully jumped the Atlantic. The proposed cap would be set at five times the budget of the lowest-spending team. While one might imagine that the league’s richest clubs would be opposed to this proposal, they could actually be potential benefactors from the new restriction; only middling overpaid players would potentially lose out. The process should be watched closely by cycling fans and stakeholders since it could potentially introduce an applicable model for pro cycling.

At this proposed cap level, nearly every major club would already be in compliance if the new rules were implemented today – which raises questions about what, if any, real effect it might have. (Chelsea is the only club that would have breached the cap in 2024.) Hence, it is not surprising that most of the league’s biggest clubs support the measure. In addition, it is well-known that spending caps, even ones as high as the EPL’s proposed one, tend to increase the value of member clubs of the cost-capped league (major American sports franchises trade at significantly higher revenue multiples than soccer clubs). Only one club, Manchester United – which is likely looking to spend a massive amount of money to sign top players to turn its sporting fortunes around – voted against the measure. Hence, it appears that this revolutionary cap has a real chance at getting the needed two-thirds vote, or 14 out of 20 clubs, to pass. It’s worth mentioning that a good chunk of those team owners likely to vote in favor are some of the same people who also own American-based clubs currently trading at envious market values. The open question is what would happen, in terms of both team support and effect on parity, if the cap was set at a lower level.

One major caveat to the discussion above, which we have often discussed in the past, is that money doesn’t guarantee sporting success. For example, most of the NBA teams with the highest payrolls and highest luxury tax penalty burdens are not currently experiencing the greatest success. As we will discuss in a detailed upcoming joint analysis with Wielerflits, cost caps are not the only means of incentivizing competitive parity. In the NBA, the previously high-flying Golden State Warriors will pay the most luxury tax this season – almost $177 million on top of a league-high $205 million payroll – and the team didn’t even make it to the playoffs. Second in terms of luxury tax penalties were the Clippers, also knocked out in the opening-round series. “In total, the NBA’s eight teams over the luxury tax threshold this season will pay $525 million, and nearly half of it will be coming from teams without a postseason win.”

With all of the drama surrounding WADA’s handling of its current Chinese swimming crisis – and diminished trust in its global anti-doping authority – little attention has been paid to other emerging trends that could shape endurance sports. The 23 swimmers tested positive for a heart medication that can be used for recovery and improved lean muscle mass. If that sounds familiar, it’s because power-to-weight is a central objective of every doping program ever uncovered in pro cycling. In the shadow of increased scrutiny for TUEs and the Chinese incident, a rumor resurfaced that popular weight loss medications like Ozempic and Wegovy – which aren’t on the WADA banned list – are being used in elite endurance sports like pro cycling for similar weight loss advantages. No one should be surprised by this, if the rumor holds true; as the old adage goes, “if it’s not banned, it’s legal.” While potentially useful in curbing appetite during critical training blocks, there are related issues such as under-fueling and simultaneous loss of both fat and valuable muscle during prolonged GLP-1 use. Some studies have indicated that GLP-1 use can help with muscle preservation and provide some cardiac benefits in the elderly, but there are no available studies with elite athletes and for that reason alone we hope no one in cycling is misusing the medication today.

With the first rounds of U.S. road racing (Redlands Classic, Tour of the Gila, Athens Twilight Criterium) and off-road racing (Mid-South, LifeTime Grand Prix @ Sea Otter, Belgian Waffle Ride San Diego) now behind us, it’s interesting to observe the widening gap between the two disciplines. Off-road, with an emphasis on inclusivity and accessibility, has taken on a dominant role in terms of fan interest in domestic bike racing. A cursory survey of gravel racing’s sponsors, number of participants, and Instagram followers provides reference scale: the quickly-produced recap video of the Fuego XL pro MTB race at Sea Otter got almost 200,000 YouTube views in the first week. And many sponsors now consider the Unbound gravel race to be the world’s most important bike race – road or gravel – during the month of June.

There is clearly a place for both road racing and criteriums in the domestic market, and USA Cycling race licenses in 2023 grew for the first time since 2014. However, gaining fan and sponsor interest seems to be a work in progress. While gravel races borrow the running marathon business model – with thousands of citizen cyclists paying entry fees that help support pro fields and prizes – road races still depend on a relatively small number of participants and teams to make the economics work. Municipalities are charging more and more to cover safety and traffic services – burdens that a road race must cover from its relatively small revenue stream. Larger road races need to decide whether or not to affiliate with UCI – which can bring greater prestige and international teams, but which often requires that the race cover travel and entry fees for participants. These costs can be unsustainable for many events, running into six figures for longer stage races – partly why so many U.S. road races have disappeared in the last decade or so, and why there are only three UCI-sanctioned races in the United States this year.

The Maryland Classic, now heading into its third edition in September, is the primary example of a successful road model in the U.S. today. One key reason for Maryland’s quick success is its careful placement on the international schedule; several European-based WorldTour teams have embraced the race’s convenience (and moderate additional expense) to come to North America and use the event to competitively acclimate and then travel to the two key Canadian WorldTour races which take place the following weekend. This advantage allows the event to attract a stronger and more international field; if more American races could work together to create race blocks (like Valley of the Sun in Phoenix and Tucson Bicycle Classic did this year), could it be easier and more affordable for teams to participate? Perhaps the Redlands Classic, Sea Otter and the Tour of Gila could establish a block of UCI racing that encourages cost sharing, attracts new sponsors, and enhances live stream value. Criteriums may have lower production costs and are actually growing in popularity, but the business model for road racing can adapt and change with the times, too.