Pog and Vingo Dominate ... But It's Not Over Yet; Why Aren't More People Watching? Longo Borghini Wins Giro; Doping Questions Ahead of the Olympics ...
Key Takeaways:
● Pogačar and Vingegaard Dominate the Tour …
● … But It’s Not Over Yet
● Why Aren’t More People Watching the Tour?
● Longo Borghini Takes Giro Donne
● Doping Questions Abound as Olympics Approach
● NewProduct Launches Take Advantage of Tour Exposure
As many predicted, the Tour de France has turned into a two-up battle between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard – both of whom are performing at superhuman levels. Through the first two weeks, Pogačar displayed the peerless form he has held throughout the 2024 season, building a three-minute lead on defending champion Vingegaard and five minutes plus on Remco Evenepoel. He seems at the moment to be on track to complete an historic Tour/Giro double, but while his Giro d’Italia overall win was impressive, the fact that Pogačar has continued his dominant run at the Tour – where he is facing all of the sport’s other “Big Six” top-tier contenders – suggests that he has reached an even higher fitness level than he demonstrated in May. For years, the experts have told us that it is no longer possible for a single rider to win both events, but it seems increasingly likely that history will need to be rewritten.
Many in the cycling punditry and media world tilted immediately towards Vingegaard after he edged out Pogačar in a mountain-top sprint on stage 11. But Pogačar decisively stamped his authority on the race in the two Pyrenean stages that followed over the weekend. On Saturday, he broke Tony Rominger’s 31-year-old climbing record on Pla d'Adet, and then on Sunday he shattered Marco Pantani’s record up Plateau de Beille by more than three minutes. (The weekend’s climbing highlighted just how high the performance level is in today’s cycling; Pogačar was remarkably just one of thirteen riders to break Rominger’s record on Pla d’Adet and one of three to beat Pantani’s de Beille record; Vingegaard and Evenepoel also bettered Pantani.) Those who have now swung the other direction and predict that the race is essentially over would do well to remember that last year Pogačar lost over seven minutes to Vingegaard in just two stages later in the race. As we often hear, the Tour still has six stages to go, and anything can happen.
Despite the historic and heroic action on the road in this year’s Tour, viewership of the event globally may not reach new highs – due to a variety of other high-profile sports competing for fan attention this month. The UEFA 2024 and Copa America have been dominating the live sports landscape, and while the Euro viewership has been predictably high, the Copa ‒ which featured Argentina and Lionel Messi throughout the tournament’s run ‒ scored some its highest-ever peak audience measurements in the U.S. market. And UEFA viewing in the U.S. was also unexpectedly strong, potentially blunting live audience capture for the Tour because the two events essentially overlapped the morning time slot. While U.S. viewership numbers are hard to come by, and European markets often publish their trends after the race concludes, Australian broadcaster SBS noted that some five million fans had tuned into the race so far in 2024 ‒ a cumulative figure since the race started two weeks ago, and indicative of cycling’s smaller niche pull outside of Europe’s key cycling markets.
The fact that one of the biggest “stories” out of this historically strong Tour was Julien Bernard being fined by the UCI for stopping to kiss his wife on Stage 7 underlines that the massive level of dissonance between a fantastic on-road product and a relatively thin level of audience interest. And there are bigger and more significant global storylines here – like Biniam Girmay almost certain to become the first Black African to win an overall jersey at the Tour de France – that are going largely unnoticed in the larger sports and cultural world. With just a week to go until the race finishes in Nice, it remains to be seen how this year will compare to prior years in terms of broadcast performance? Hopefully, the remaining stages will display the alliances, hunger, and panache among Pogačar’s challengers and bring the race to an exciting conclusion ‒ at least one that glues fans to their screens.
With less than two weeks until the Paris Olympics commence, anti-doping controversies in China, Kenya, the U.K. and U.S. continue to swirl and disrupt both athlete trust and the Games’ sporting narrative. The Chinese swimming debacle is the most well-known ‒ having triggered a largely symbolic “independent” review by World Aquatics and WADA in which the organizations procedurally cleared themselves of any misdeeds. However, Congressional hearings in the U.S. may lead to legal action via the Rodchenkov Act. Kenya’s running crisis reached its peak with at least 27 suspensions announced since the first week in June, including major marathon champions and now former world record holders. German broadcaster ARD, which broke the Chinese story, is poised to air a follow-up on the China case on the eve of the Games which purportedly will shed new light on the situation, as many questions remain unanswered by Chinese authorities and WADA (rumors persist that some of the swimmers weren’t even staying at the specific hotel highlighted in the controversy). Adding to the morass, a British Taekwondo gold medalist was cleared for refusing a test by reason of “disorientation due to dehydration” – a confounding episode which was not revealed until months after she was provisionally suspended and then reinstated in time for the European championships.
Many athletes believe the anti-doping situation overall is murkier than ever; some of the Chinese swimmers will be competing in Paris, and other athletes who are clients of the same agents and trainers who guided the banned Kenyan runners are also expected to compete. A quarter century has passed since cycling’s Festina Affair kicked off the modern anti-doping model with the convening of WADA and its NADO members; is it finally time to update the system before it completely falls apart for the athletes and the sports which it serves?
As we suggested last week, it does now appear that the Chinese company XDS has made a significant investment in the Astana cycling team. Although no numbers of equity percentage figures were announced, it appears that the company will indeed make a substantial investment in the team, and the arrangement will last for at least a five-year time period. XDS said that it will ensure that the team has “very enough budget and the best technical support.” According to the team’s press release, “XDS owns one of the largest bicycle manufacturers in the world, with an annual production capacity of 10 million units. It is the first professional manufacturer in mainland China that integrates design, research and development, production, and sales of cycling products.” It will be interesting to follow how this new collaboration works going forward.
As we mentioned last week, the Tour isn’t the only pro race taking place in July. The Giro Donne concluded on Sunday with Elisa Longo Borghini of Lidl-Trek defending strongly to take a wire-to-wire victory (she won the prologue time trial to kick off the week), the first for an Italian rider since 2008. Lotte Kopecky rode aggressively throughout the race, and even with SDWorx-Protime teammate Niamh Fisher Black taking a stage, the team seemed to lack the numerical and tactical advantage it usually holds when Demi Vollering is present (she skipped to prepare for the upcoming Olympics). Remarkably, Kopecky held the more talented climber Longo Borghini close during the beyond-category Blockhaus climb on Saturday’s stage (won by talented Aussie Neve Bradbury of Canyon-SRAM), indicating that the Belgian world champion may be ready to challenge for team leadership over Vollering in the high mountains of the upcoming Tour de France Femmes in August. Longo Borghini’s 21-second margin of victory was hard fought and deserved to be seen by more fans, if only for the race’s timing. But the Tour of Austria ‒ often a testing ground for climbers and up and comers in the lower tier pro teams ‒ came to a tragic conclusion with the death of 25-year-old Norwegian prospect Andre Drege, who crashed on the descent of the Grossglockner climb and succumbed to his injuries. The final day’s stage was canceled in deference, and the loss of Drege ‒ who would have joined the WT in 2025 via Jayco-AlUla ‒ was noted in condolences by many of the teams racing stage 8 at the Tour.
Product launches during the Tour de France is a hot topic in the cycling industry right now. A perfectly-timed release tied to a prominent rider or team can make or break a brand’s sales targets and market positioning for the entire year. Vast claims about dropping weight, adding speed, or new product features ricocheted throughout the cycling press and riders were well-prepped by their sponsors to answer questions about their newest gear. However, the most critical questions are actually the same ones that we started the 2024 fiscal year trying to pin down: when will the big retailers sell through their legacy overstock, and has the supply chain right-sized enough that new equipment being showcased at the Tour will actually be available? As was reported in May, nearly all of the big brands are still suffering from suppressive legacy stock effects on new product releases, and while supply chain factors are normalizing, the capability of the market to sustain and profit from new releases is still dependent on the stock it needs to clear. While there are some tantalizing fresh bikes and kit on display across the Tour’s many teams, it remains to be seen if any of the shiny new goodies will help bolster sales in the sport before this critical marketing timeframe closes.