Sports a Centralizing Force in '22; The Potential of Women's Cycling; UCI Finally Makes Some Changes; Exciting Cyclocross Season a Boon
Key Takeaways:
● Sports Were a Centralizing Force in 2022
● The Potential of Women’s Pro Cycling
● UCI Makes Changes in Points System and Calendar
● Cyclocross Season a Major Boon for the Sport
● Fitness Industry Back to Pre-Pandemic Conditions
Sports served as a rare centralizing force in the country last year, as concisely summarized by FOS. The post-pandemic pent-up demand for sports saw fans streaming back into sporting events and driving increased demand for merchandise. Fans showed a greater appetite for “newer” sports like Formula 1 and soccer and participated at increasing levels in “newer” activities like pickleball and disc golf. As we have highlighted throughout the year, major sports franchises – from the “Big Four” U.S. leagues to European football and Indian cricket – all saw exploding franchise values. College sports experienced a year of seismic shifts that “pushed the industry towards a more pro sports-like structure than ever.” Media deals reached new valuation heights, as big tech companies jumped into the game with a fervor. Sports betting took off in earnest and shows every sign of developing into a potentially massive new revenue stream. And combating obsolescence concerns, some stadiums and arenas are starting to be reimagined as alternative economic and residential centers. Although continuing supply chain issues affected nearly every part of the global economy, many sports-related companies demonstrated financial strength even in the face of economic headwinds. And despite roiling sea changes in the media industry and the slow migration of cable subscribers to streaming services, “sports stood apart for their steadiness.” And, as pointed out last week, the end of the year provided an extraordinary reminder of the power and joy of sports.
The growth of women’s sports was another key trend in 2022 – with events, leagues, and tournaments demonstrating global reach and financial growth. The 2022 UEFA Cup finale attracted the largest audience – men’s or women’s – in FIFA cup history, while Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka broke into the world’s top 100 paid athletes. More to the point, women’s sports economics have proven that the diverse market reach, unique brand opportunities, and celebrity draw of the personalities are rapidly changing how investors value team ownership, how broadcasters value the product and prioritize it in subscription packaging, and how sponsors target key relationships with athletes and their fans. Behind the scenes, collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) have become a pivot point for league and tournament growth, with cricket, basketball, and soccer leagues penning accords to guarantee equality (opportunities, funding, wellness, and career support) and equity (pay that is commensurate with the athletes’ output).
Women’s cycling is still figuratively drafting behind the success of other women’s sports; however, it is poised to rapidly catch up. The sport has perhaps its most marketable peer group of elite riders in history, and the Tour de France Femmes may become a permanent fixture. There have been high-profile investments in teams, events, and development programs. Viewership jumps for key cycling monuments like Flanders Classics, which hinted at potential TdFF viewership numbers this past July, showed that fans are ready to tune in – leading to increased broadcaster interest and sponsor investments across the board. We still believe that a true collective bargaining agreement will be women’s cycling’s next big pivot, but in the short term, calendar realignment to promote a season-long narrative will have the biggest impact. Developing a calendar narrative that leads to a climactic season-ending team and individual championship will provide a universal hook for sports fans new to cycling. Significantly, this could also drive acceptance for changes that appear to be in the works for men’s cycling as well.
After listening to a steady drumbeat of criticism regarding its points system, the UCI finally proposed some significant changes to the process just before Christmas. We have not yet tried to dig into the details, though other observers have; the main changes involve more points allocated to the stage winners in the grand tours, a special higher points category for the five monuments, some rearrangements of obviously misplaced races like Strade Bianche, and an increase in points allocated to the Olympic events and World Championships. The other major change is that now point totals for the team’s top 20 riders will be included in the ranking, rather than just the top ten riders; this will help to make the system fairer, especially for teams where key riders may have been injured or sick for a period of time. The main intent, which hopefully these changes will support, is to encourage all teams to send their best riders to the most important races – something that did not always happen in 2022. However, as pointed out in the past, it has always been easier to criticize the points system than to simply tweak a few items and make it infallible. The new system puts more emphasis on the grand tours, where the top riders may be able to garner far more points – by taking a few stage wins and a high overall finish – than it was possible to do in the past. As The Inner Ring blog put it, it’s a “rich get richer” scenario that makes the grand tours even more important.
It is encouraging to see the UCI at least implicitly acknowledge the weakness with the current UCI points system by implementing these changes. However, both the timing of the announcement – right before the Christmas Holiday – and an apparent lack of communication with the teams beforehand, suggests that communication between the UCI and the teams is still not as strong as it should be. For example, the Lotto-Dstny team (which was just relegated) announced they would turn down their automatic Giro invite in 2023 in order to focus on scoring points at smaller races. This happened just days before the UCI released the news that they would be discouraging this type of gamesmanship with the revised points structure. It’s hard to imagine that Lotto would have made this decision had they known the UCI planned to revise the system to put more weight on the grand tours. Of course, it is fair to say that this is Lotto’s fault for attempting to game the system, but when the 2023 Giro rolls around, the start list will be weaker as a result of this lack of communication.
A few days later, the UCI also announced that, starting in 2026, there will no longer be overlapping WorldTour races, and hence there will be fewer total top-level races – leveraging the “scarcity value” proposed in the 2018 Rapha Roadmap. We put this in the “we’ll believe it when we see it” category; for example, which events will be moved or downgraded, and what is the role of ASO? There was also one other, slightly curious change announced by the UCI at the same time. The system for invitations to WT races was modified, but just for 2023. Any team which lost its WT status at the end of 2022 for sporting criteria reasons, but which is not eligible for mandatory invitations, will receive invites to WT stage races with the exception of grand tours. This appeared to be a specific concession to Israel–Premier Tech owner Sylvan Adams, who has consistently pointed out the inequities and problems with the relegation system (particularly due to COVID impacts). At one point late in the season, he threatened to sue the UCI and take his case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport – and this latest development hints at his growing influence. (Interestingly, Adams told The Outer Line that his team would actually not have been relegated at all had this new system already been in place.)
Cyclocross racing has had a major impact on fan interest and the sport’s seasonal narrative this winter. The women’s World Cup has been dominated by an exciting youth movement led by Puck Pieterse (Alpecin-Deceuninck), and while the men’s side had a slow start, it has become white-hot with the 3-way battle raging between reigning world champion Tom Pidcock (Ineos), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck). The races leading into the upcoming cyclocross world championships have become some of the most unpredictable and watchable ever in cycling; it behooves the sport to use this surge in fan interest to its advantage. How can we better highlight the sport’s personalities to showcase the racing – the battles between the riders and the battles that take place on course? How can we better portray the hopes and dreams of the new generation as they compete against the old guard who seek to cement their legacies? Cycling’s 2023 season may have its greatest kick-off in history, and we hope it can ride that wave of enthusiasm all year long.
The recently-released American College of Sports Medicine Worldwide Survey of fitness trends for the year reflects an array of predictable post-pandemic recovery impacts on the fitness industry. During the COVID era of quarantine, face coverings, social distancing, and health club closures, fitness activities abruptly shifted to home exercise gyms and online delivery of fitness programs and training. Now, as we tentatively start to emerge from the pandemic, the fitness industry seems to be “returning to basics” – with the top trends this year being increasing use of wearable technologies, and strength training with free weights. Other notable trends this year include fitness programs for older adults and increasing outdoor activities. As an example of the rapid changes, online training went from the #26 trend in 2020 to the #1 trend for 2021, then dropping back down to the #9 spot for 2022, as the world returns to pre-pandemic social interactions and exercise activities.
The endless cycle of speculation concerning Mark Cavendish’s team for 2023 is beginning to wear thin. The whole affair was seemingly put to an end last week when well-sourced rumors emerged that he had signed with Astana along with Dutch fast man Cees Bol – who would presumably be acting as his dedicated lead-out rider. However, flash forward to this week and there still hasn’t been an official announcement of Cavendish, or Bol’s signing. In addition, the team lacks the roster space to sign both riders and has just released a 2023 team photo without Cavendish included. All of this could be chalked up to behind-the-scenes quibbles between Cavendish’s personal and/or Astana’s team-wide sponsors that will be ironed out in the coming days. But it is also a reminder that until pen is put to paper (and sometimes even afterwards), speculating on the future team of a pro cyclist is a fool’s game; it is always in the rider’s (and their agent’s) best interest to appear to be serious about heading to one team in order to extract a fatter contract with another.
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