Unbound - Positives and Negatives; Growing Sports Content but Declining Sports Journalism; Impact of U.S. NIL Rules on European Sport; New Ideas for Development of U.S. Cycling ...

Key Takeaways:

●        Unbound – the Positives and Negatives

●        As We’re Flooded with Sports Content …

●        … True Sports Journalism is in Decline

●        Could U.S. NIL Developments Affect European Sport?

●        A New Avenue for Development of U.S. Cycling Talent?

●        Early Inferences from the Dauphine

Unbound – the world’s biggest gravel race, and one of America’s biggest bike races – took place on Saturday in eastern Kansas with some 5,000 participants across different distances, including notable pro racers from all over the world and tremendous media attention. The elite women got their own start for the first time, 25 minutes ahead of the age group field, in what most riders described as a historic day for gravel – and is likely to be the format from here on out. Lachlan Morton of the EF Pro Cycling team was a wildly popular winner of the men’s race after an audacious long breakaway with another former World Tour pro, Chad Haga. The women’s event was won – in an historic field sprint of nine racers – by a relatively unknown German Ph.D. student named Rosa Klöser, who only took up cycling 2.5 years ago. Unbound continues to become more of an international race, with riders from over 40 countries competing this weekend, and attracting more elite WorldTour riders every year. This is causing a gradual shift in race dynamics from a battle of attrition to a more tactical event that is starting to play out in a way similar to Paris-Roubaix or the Belgian Classics – complete with novel F1-style pit stops during the race. Unpredictable finishes and unexpected champions are some of the things that make gravel racing so exciting.

Despite its rapid growth and increasing popularity, we believe that Unbound still falls short in a couple of key ways. First, for a bike race with this kind of global notoriety, it’s shocking that there is no prize money; the winners don’t receive a single dime. The race is part of the Life Time Grand Prix, a seven-race series which awards a total of $300,000 at the end of the season; but it still feels wrong to expect many pros (particularly those who aren’t part of the LTGP) to race for free. Second, there is no broadcast coverage or live stream – something that should be a no-brainer in 2024 for any bike race that wants to be taken seriously. Obviously, it is technically challenging to broadcast an event that takes place in remote territory – some areas without cell coverage – but the lack of decent coverage will continue to constrain both the growth of the race as well as sponsor interest in the entire discipline. Currently, Unbound uses a patchwork of Instagram stories to update fans, but that is a slow and frustrating way to keep up with the world’s biggest gravel race. Life Time needs to do better with Unbound.

On the broader topic of media, it seems that the expansion, consolidation and carve-out of sports media rights among the major media and technology channels may be backfiring – with regards to consumer satisfaction and affordability. A recent meta-analysis of the situation has indicated that as more broadcast channels acquire “chunks” of a major sports, consumers are saddled with higher costs to access their favorite events and teams. Those costs can sometimes be in excess of $1,000 a year when all of the options are added up. U.S. pro soccer (both men’s and women’s) have been an outlier in this regard, pairing exclusively with AppleTV – which is betting on the popularity of the sport to grow exponentially. On the other hand, pro cycling – without any kind of effective consolidation – is stuck in the “carved-out” category, and the cost of accessing the full calendar is somewhat pricey, especially when you consider that fans may also be subscribing to other sports streaming services. It will be informative to see if there is backlash or additional revenue disruption in this “carved-out category” that may help spur cycling’s major race stakeholders to re-examine media rights consolidation strategies.

Hidden behind all this flood of new sports content available to consumers is a longer-term threat to true sports journalism. Analyzing the broader impact of the decline of Sports Illustrated, a recent article in the venerable Atlantic magazine takes an in-depth look at this issue, summarizing … “the sports-talk-podcast industry is booming; many professional athletes host their own shows. Netflix cranks out one gauzy, player-approved documentary series after another, and every armchair quarterback or would-be pundit has an opinion to share on social media. Yet despite all of this entertainment, all of these shows, and all of these hot takes, true sports-accountability journalism is disappearing.” The article recounts the number of major news outlets that have essentially dissolved their sports journalism efforts – the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times; even ESPN is cutting back. At a time where new and potentially contentious issues like gambling and NIL rights, as well as traditional challenges like doping and sports corruption loom large on the horizon, the lack of well-supported sports journalism makes it “easier for athletes, owners, and leagues to conceal hard truths from the public.” During a time that seems to demand watchdog journalism, “many of the watchdogs are watching from the couch.” Cycling has never really had an extensive or well-financed media, but some of these concerns – and the value of the “fourth estate” to maintain a check on hard truths – seem just as relevant in this sport.

The Critérium du Dauphiné got underway this week with two major subplots: (1) a possible GC battle between Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel, two potential Tour de France contenders building back from injuries, and (2) the Visma-LAB team being led two Americans, Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson. The fact that a juggernaut team like Visma is hanging its hopes on two American riders at the key Tour preparation race confirms the thesis we outlined at the beginning of the 2024 season: while the overall quantity of Americans at the WorldTour-level may be lower than in the past, the level of quality is near an all-time high. And, if either Jorgenson or Kuss go on to win the race – always a solid predictor of overall Tour success – we could possibly see a long-awaited bona fide American contender at the world’s biggest race, which would certainly drive much-needed interest and engagement in the U.S. market.

One of the main reasons Kuss and Jorgenson have quickly transformed from high-end domestiques to designated leaders is the ambiguity surrounding Jonas Vingegaard. Less than a month away from the Tour, Visma-LAB is still tight-lipped about the health and fitness status of the two-time defending Tour winner, or if he will even take the start line. Considering that Vingegaard, along with Wout Van Aert, just arrived at an altitude training camp, if he does race the Tour, it will likely be at a reduced fitness level from what we’ve seen the last two years. While it might seem odd that there is still so little information available, it is probably the right decision for Visma-LAB to keep their competitors guessing. However, from a broader perspective, the Tour can’t confidently promote a Vingegaard/Pogačar head-to-head matchup. Hence, it does beg the question of whether this radio silence is good for the sport. It also highlights the reason why many professional sports leagues require teams to follow injury report rules (particularly as this can affect sports betting), openly disclosing the status and time frame for each athlete’s recovery.

Last week we shared some observations about the end of “amateur” sports in the U.S., and it’s worth asking what the potential and larger global impact of this may be, for example on the club-based major European sporting football (soccer) and basketball leagues. Both leagues have highly-stratified and well-funded development clubs for bringing in junior-level talent and building these athletes into globally dominant stars – like Mohamed Salah or Kylian Mbappe, or Victor Wembanyana and Luka Doncic. However, the sheer size of the emerging pool of NIL third-party funds could make it more difficult for Euro clubs to hold on to their talent pipeline. For example, could basketball clubs see a talent drain into the U.S. collegiate conferences in the coming years, destabilizing the national leagues or perhaps the entire Euro league system? Whereas these Euro leagues used to be a way for talented U.S. players to skip college and go straight into a professional development system, the NIL model may actually benefit collegiate sport by globalizing the appeal, prestige, and most importantly, earning potential of an NCAA “scholarship” in the future.

Along a parallel track, could the newly minted NIL landscape provide U.S. cycling with a new and diverse pipeline for talent development? While much of the focus has been on the so-called Power Conferences (which align universities in competitive blocs to maximize media rights), could collegiate club sports be the next big bet for the new, and highly capitalized third-party NIL management groups? For example, Learfield – a collegiate sports media rights aggregator, broker, and deal-maker – is betting on the niche sport of collegiate rodeo to have a high return on investment in the future – as the popularity and viewership of the sport continues to pick up speed. Contrary to first blush, rodeo and collegiate cycling are not all that organizationally dissimilar, with both sports overseen by a club-level organizing federation (NIRA for rodeo, NCCA for cycling) and competitions aligned within conferences that lead to an annual national championship meet.

Collegiate cycling has several potential advantages for such a talent development initiative. Many riders already have the means to afford quality equipment; the club system provides a valuable peer-level social network within the school for camaraderie; and there are often coaches within graduate programs and faculty to guide the riders. College-age athletes are older (which may at first seem like a negative) but the capability to siphon talent out of other sports – particularly soccer or track and field – could be beneficial, as these athletes already have proven capabilities and years of coaching in their experience. Even a small funding boost – to help supply newly discovered talents with a bike and some riding kit – could pay big dividends. One wonders if there is a Learfield type of organization in the NIL marketplace that sees the potential value in developing cycling into a collegiate club sport media property – and if USAC would open to a conversation, should that happen.

While the pro cycling audience was focused on the Dauphiné – and its potential impact on the men’s Tour de France field – there were other events happening. The women contested the elite-level Vuelta Ciclista Andalucia, won by Liv AlUla Jayco’s Mavi Garcia, and which provided many Women’s WorldTour riders with a valuable tune-up ahead of next weekend’s Tour of Britain. Similarly, there were a handful of highly entertaining men’s races at the Pro and Continental level across Europe – particularly Belgium; Biniam Girmay took out the Circuit Franco Belge in a brilliant sprint, while the evergreen Alexander Kristoff won with a powerful field kick in the Heylen Vastgoed Heistse Pijl, and Uno-X's Jonas Abrahamsen – perhaps the most-improved rider over the last two seasons – got his first professional win at the Brussels Cycling Classic.

Most global fans aren’t getting exposed to these exciting national-level races, as hardly any of them are carried in the streaming broadcast packages outside of western Europe. These kinds of races are perfect mid-week “fixes” and weekend fillers for pro cycling junkies and could bolster uptake and viewership of cycling content by introducing new fans to these races and highlighting the emergent talent in smaller teams.