Uncertainty Around New Sports Streaming Service; Lessons from F1; Cycling Tourism Opportunities; More Races Being Shortened; Bizarre Spanish Doping Story: The Outer Line Partners with Wielerflits ...

Key Takeaways:

●        Will the New Sports Streaming Service Actually Happen?

●        More Potential Lessons for Cycling from Formula 1

●        Opportunities to Support Events with Cycling Tourism

●        More Races Shortened or Cancelled

●        Bizarre Spanish Doping Conflagration

●        The Outer Line Announces Collaboration with Wielerflits

A few weeks ago, we highlighted the announcement of a new sports streaming service that would combine the diverse assets of Fox, ESPN (Disney) and Warner Bros. Discovery – three of the largest sports broadcasters – into a single content platform. Presumably driven by the declining rate of bundled cable and satellite TV subscriptions, the proposed plan was hailed by sports fans – and particularly fans of smaller niche sports like cycling. But, several weeks later, few further details about the venture have emerged, and there are now increasing concerns that the whole thing may not even happen. So far there has been no information about who will run the service, what it will be called, or how the three parties might share in the revenues of the venture. According to a report this week from Front Office Sports, the new venture is not even close to being ready to provide any kind of streaming content. One official interviewed said that the three parties “don’t even have a contract.”  All they have is a press release.” Not only that, the three parties have seriously offended some of their prime partners – particularly the NBA – by not involving them in the process and the talks. Reportedly, some of the leagues view the whole effort as a trojan horse – a mechanism for the three parties to bid for TV rights as a combined entity, rather than competing against each other and bidding up prices – consequently reducing the rights fees which are the “financial lifeblood” of the leagues. Meanwhile, FuboTV, left out in the dark, has filed an antitrust suit against the proposed venture. It remains to be seen whether the venture ever gets off the ground.

In an interesting tweet – which cycling fans might do well to study – the Huddle-Up newsletter recently underlined a number of historical attributes and trends in Formula 1 racing. McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown had emphasized the current value of F1 teams (all now estimated to be worth at least $1.3 billion) while reminding readers that it was not that long ago that teams were trading for $1 (like cycling teams do currently) – primarily because of the vast investments required. But after purchasing the sport in 2017, among other things, Liberty Media instituted a cost cap – similar to other U.S. franchise sports leagues – creating a much more balanced and competitive sport. The eventual result was that more than half the F1 teams today turn a profit. With a more exciting sport, and programs like Netflix’s Drive to Survive, viewership and sponsorship has continued to grow, and the sport is generally enjoying an upward spiral. In sum, the cost cap basically allowed teams to become more financially stable, and to create assets that can appreciate over time. Although many cycling analysts and traditionalist fans dismiss comparisons with Formula 1, and although there are clearly significant differences, we continue to suggest that there are important examples for pro cycling to consider.

The past weekend of racing saw the 2024 road season continue to build into full swing with two concurrent WorldTour stage races – France’s Paris-Nice and Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Outside of once again raising the question of why two WorldTour events are allowed to directly conflict with one another, the races highlighted the fact that after a week off from dominating the sport, Visma-Lease a Bike is clearly the sport’s top team. Their GC superstar Jonas Vingegaard easily won Tirreno, reminding everyone he is the sport’s premier stage racer until further notice. Meanwhile, their young American off-season acquisition Matteo Jorgenson upset a list of highly-touted pre-race favorites to win the overall at Paris-Nice. Jorgenson’s surprise win marked the first time an American has won the prestigious race since Floyd Landis in 2006, signaling that he could be the next (and long-awaited) GC star from the USA. And signaling that U.S. racing is at its highest level in nearly a generation, Jorgenson’s win came at the expense of another American, UAE’s Brandon McNulty, who was leading the race heading into the final stage, and who ended up in third. The scariest part of this win for the rest of the sport is that Jorgensen will also be contending at the Tour de France – along with his Visma teammate Jonas Vingegaard.

A few weeks after the historic Vuelta a Andalucia (Ruta Del Sol) was all-but canceled due to local authorities being unwilling and/or unable to provide enough security personnel to secure the force, two more significant race cancellations/alterations have taken place due to issues with local governments. First, the 15th stage of the 2024 Giro d’Italia was forced to add the Mortirolo climb after local authorities in Switzerland declined to authorize the race’s planned border crossing en route to the stage finish Livigno – citing the “disproportionate burden” securing the road would place on local resources. Meanwhile, it was also announced that La Route d'Occitanie, which was slated to run in June, would be canceled due to a lack of available police officers. These disruptions, while they so far affect only smaller and low-profile events, seem to be happening more regularly. This shows just how dependent open-road cycling events are on the whims of local governments.

We hear a lot in pro cycling about the pros and cons of different ranking systems, many of which are always changing and being refined, and no one is ever quite happy with where these systems land. We have written extensively on this topic over the past ten years, suggesting potential improvements but always acknowledging that there will never be a perfect system. Although most fans (and riders) have historically not paid that much attention to the UCI points ranking system, the recent “promotion and relegation” version brought a lot more attention to the idiosyncrasies of the system. Now, all parties are weighing in on the pros and cons, suggesting that the current system weights the importance of races unrealistically, and creates contradictory or non-competitive incentives. Interestingly, reports last week indicate that professional golf seems to have a similar problem. Number 9-ranked golfer Matthew Fitzpatrick sounds like a cyclist when he said, “I don’t think the world rankings are a true representation of the game ……. I don’t really look at them or pay attention to them anymore. I just don’t think they’re right.” Just as in cycling, where the private ProCyclingStats ranking system is felt by most observers to be more accurate than the official UCI program, new databases are also being developed in golf – where individual rankings also determine who gets invited to what events, and so on.

The peculiar midweek story about 130 amateur Spanish racers quickly abandoning an event when anti-doping officers from CELAD showed up may have been a moment of comic relief for some, but it comes with serious implications for cycling. According to witnesses, once the riders became aware of the situation, punctures, mechanicals, and abandons en masse whittled the finishers to just 52 places. Local reports suggested that “this is a deep-rooted problem,” noting that “the presence – or rumors – of anti-doping tests in these races usually provokes an avalanche of abandons or non-starters.” Hot takes in the cycling press ranged from parody to outright indignation. While the circumstances of the abandonments give pause for concern – especially in an Olympic year in which sports fans are seeing a general increase in anti-doping cases due to the preeminence of the upcoming Games – cycling has fortunately been largely absent from the doping headlines. This ridiculous situation is unfortunately reflective of the broader situation in Spain, where turmoil and accusations of subversion within the CELAD agency and years of doping controversies (Puerto, Hypoxianet, and now Ilex) have completely eroded public trust in the anti-doping system. Which begs the question – is it more than just Spain that we should be worried about?

One of pro cycling’s most under-utilized revenue streams is co-development of cycling tourism in the regions of important races, and where new races are being developed for potential WorldTour consideration. The cycling business experts at Wielerflits have played a steady hand in drawing attention to the potential of tourism revenue over the past few years, highlighting places throughout the world which are investing in cycling-friendly infrastructure and cyclist-friendly experiences. Its ongoing “Cycling Tourism” series has become a library for enthusiasts to discover new experiences in the sport (we recommend using Google’s Translate browser extension, if you haven’t mastered the Dutch language). But that tourism doesn’t come without unique problems, and like pro cycling’s recent experiences with understaffed police to secure safe riding parcours, popular events are finding it harder to get buy-in from the general public and publicly-funded agencies to run economically successful events. Nevertheless, sportifs held in conjunction with men’s and women’s racing are a sound business and tourism investment. Many top races already run well-developed events, which regularly sell out and have had to adopt lottery-based registrations. For example, wouldn’t it be possible to run a sportif in the first and last week of a Grand Tour? Could a sportif that is often held in inclement conditions (like the Northern Classics) also hold summer editions to enhance participation? More variety and accessibility could enhance cycling tourism spending patterns – and fan affinity, too.

The CAS surprised its anti-doping partners last week by accepting tennis star Simona Halep’s tainted supplement argument and reduced her four-year ban to just nine months, effectively allowing her to return to competition immediately (“credit for time served”). The high court for sport sided with her legal team that the trace presence of Roxadustat (an EPO production stimulant) was within the probability of accidental ingestion via a supplement. However, critics of the decision pointed out that scientific analysis indicated direct use of the expensive medication rather than accidental contamination of anything she ingested. Regardless of one’s personal opinion about her case, the emphasis of the phrasing “within the probability” in the CAS ruling has seemingly put test developers on their back foot and raised anti-doping effectiveness and fairness questions; the science may be sound, but must achieve an even higher level of precision to be taken seriously in Switzerland. Tainted supplement appeals could increase and lead to more dismissals of potential infractions, and risks to clean sport may multiply unless detection methods can become infallible.

Finally, The Outer Line is pleased to announce a new collaboration and partnership with the Dutch cycling website Wielerflits – one of the sport’s most respected news and analysis platforms, and the publisher of RIDE magazine. We have had a long and productive relationship with Wielerflits editor Raymond Kerckhoffs, a veteran cycling journalist and one of the sport’s most incisive commentators, who also serves as the president of the International Association of Cycling Journalists – the primary professional organization within the cycling media business. Wielerflits will be republishing segments of this AIRmail newsletter as well as occasional longer-form articles and analysis, for its primarily European audience, while we will be reposting certain Wielerflits articles and stories for our more North American-oriented audience. In addition, we will be working with Wielerflits to develop joint new stories and collaborative longer-form analyses and articles.