Van Der Breggen Returns; Visma's Tour Strategy; New Transfer Rules; Doping Focus Back on Cycling; Olympic Teams Announced; Are Sports Valuation "Irrationally Exuberant?"
Key Takeaways:
● Van de Breggen Makes “Surprise” Comeback
● Visma-LAB’s Tour Strategy
● New Rider Transfer Regulations from the UCI
● Doping Attention Swings Back to Cycling
● Olympic Cycling Squads Announced
● Sports Valuations: Reaching a Point of “Irrational Exuberance?”
The surprise news last week – perhaps not that much of a surprise – was the comeback announcement of former women’s road superstar Anna van der Breggen. The multi-time world champion and Olympic gold medalist had retired in 2021 and took up a director’s seat with her former team, SDWorx. But now it seems her competitive thirst wasn’t slaked by guiding the UCI’s number one team to memorable wins – by her former road mates like Lotte Kopecky, Demi Vollering, and Lorena Wiebes. In her announcement, she cited the return of her competitive motivation after a three-year hiatus – indicating, as many suspected at the time of her retirement, that she still has plenty left in her engine. She will be returning to a sport which has advanced considerably on three fronts: level of competition, investment, and opportunity. A portfolio of expanded races like the WWT’s three “grand” tours and numerous other stage races, plus the heightened visibility of its primary classics, has given rise to an expanding field of star riders and – more critically – fan interest and sponsor commitment. And on the latter point, it would have been impossible for Van der Breggen not to notice the contract value Vollering commanded in the market when she chose to leave SDWorx for 2025. Likewise, should Van der Breggen be at or near her former capabilities, her earning power – as many athletes realize in their short career spans – only comes once in a lifetime.
One factor that could substantially spike fan interest in the upcoming men’s Tour de France is the relatively late inclusion of Jonas Vingegaard on the Visma-LAB team. While Wout van Aert’s return from a shoulder injury and inclusion on the team’s Tour squad was prefaced by several prime racing days in Norway and elsewhere, Vingegaard’s participation has been deemed highly unlikely by many of the sport’s pundits over the past weeks. This assumption was due to the severity of his Itzulia crash injuries, including what was rumored to be a significant pneumothorax contusion. But that keyword – “rumored” – could suggest that team management was either uncertain about or perhaps obfuscated the severity of the injury, leaving the door open for a speedy and dramatic return to the Tour’s competitive field. While we still wonder how sharp Vingegaard’s fitness will be (he has not raced since that fall in Spain months ago) it’s important to keep in mind we are talking about a two-time Tour champion and the perennial Tadej Pogacar foil. And if both he and the team agreed he should race, he’s probably in it to win, despite a team stacked with talent – Van Aert, rising star Matteo Jorgenson and proven grand tour winner Sepp Kuss. It seems unlikely that the team would sacrifice the presence of another strong domestique if Vingo is not at or close to 100%. If this historic rivalry is renewed, and if ASO and its broadcast/media partners can play up the “miraculous” return of its defending champion, a strong fan spike could emerge to bolster viewership.
The UCI has quietly overhauled its long-outdated transfer rules and regulations just in time for the start of the season’s most important race. The awkward lag between a rider agreeing to a transfer earlier in the season, only to be forced to wait to officially sign the contract will still happen, however, official signatures will come at the end of the season instead of the current date of August 1st. The changes are important step toward stemming the growing trend of teams recruiting and signing riders who are still under contract with rival teams. Teams will be required to notify a rider’s current team when they are interested in pursuing the rider, and signatures on a new contract will not be permitted until the transfer agreement is agreed upon between all three parties (the new team, the old team and the rider). Additionally, the UCI will also create and maintain a database to keep track of the lengths of contracts for UCI-registered riders, and the names of their agent representatives. Most importantly, teams who violate these rules will be subject to clear and defined punishment – liability for paying the rider’s current team an amount equal to the rider’s remaining salary due, and a fine equal to three months of the rider’s salary – plus a potential ban from registering new riders to the team for a period of 12 months. Riders in violation will face a potential three-month suspension, and their agents would be subject to a fine and suspension as well. We applaud the UCI on this thoughtful, and much-needed update – which should provide protection for smaller teams who have nurtured young talent, only to see these “investments” sign with larger teams and break their current deal despite having years left on their contracts.
Last week, doping attention shifted away from the Chinese Olympic swimming debacle, and came back to cycling when EF Pro team rider Andrea Piccolo was arrested at the Italian border carrying doses of human growth hormone. That alone should have been a wake-up call for the sport, but EF management (and the UCI) may have shot themselves in the foot when an EF press release revealed that Piccolo had earlier used a sleeping aid not approved by the team, and a subsequent UCI statement claimed that the rider had been under “surveillance.” EF temporarily suspended him at that time but claimed that "standard" UCI contract terms prevented his termination. The team rescinded the suspension and allowed him to compete at the Giro d’Italia, only to see him later get caught with a trafficking violation (at the very least, since HGH is difficult to detect in tests). In the process, EF drew scrutiny on its rider management policies; the team certainly didn’t have to race Piccolo if they suspected he’d be a risk – and had Piccolo legally challenged the situation, an arbitration proceeding might have dissuaded him from any further potential infractions? And given the many recent high-profile “tainted supplements” doping cases, wouldn’t Piccolo’s use of a substance not approved by the team be grounds for dismissal in the first place?
The ability of a team to terminate a contract isn’t solely based on a doping positive; most professional contracts and the UCI Code of Ethics also reference the behavior of a rider – either breaking team conduct rules or bringing the team or sport somehow into disrepute. The high-profile firing of Miguel Lopez by Astana in 2022 is a prime example, after the team determined a likely collusion between the rider and a doctor implicated in doping athletes. More generally, the entire episode renews scrutiny on pro cycling’s self-policing mentality and the possibility of undetected doping at the sport’s top level. But at least cycling isn’t in the same impasse as swimming – where at least eleven of the 23 swimmers caught up in the Chinese scandal will apparently still be competing in the Games.
USA Cycling announced its "final" road and time trial rosters for the upcoming Olympics – and the inclusion of professional triathlete Taylor Knibb – who has already qualified for the Games in the triathlon and who has never competed in a professional women’s road race – came as a surprise to many who expected that spot to go to a more seasoned rider. When Knibb punched her ticket to the games in both the time trial and road race by winning the national TT title back in May, it was assumed that she would take her time trial spot but concede her road spot – due to her lack of experience and the highly technical and tactical nature of the race. However, Knibb’s inclusion and her media quotes about being excited for the challenge of contesting in multiple sports, suggest that – against conventional wisdom – she will keep her road race spot and become one of rare athletes to compete in multiple separate events within the same Games. Otherwise, USA Cycling’s Olympic squad selections (road, track, BMX, and MTB) were notable in terms of how uncontroversial they were – highlighting just how high the level of talent amongst the top American riders is at the moment. This is a far cry from Games in the recent past, as in 2016, when the USA’s two competitors in the men’s road race were ranked 230th and 243rd in the Pro Cycling Stats Rankings.
Front Office Sports hosted an interesting conference last week discussing the exploding level of private equity investment in sporting properties and rights. One of the first rules of investing always used to be avoiding minority positions in private companies – a position that offered no power to influence or control the direction of the company. Owning sports teams in particular, used to be a labor of love, and typically a way for rich people to demonstrate their wealth. However, in a reflection of just how strong current sports investments are, numerous investors are now tripping over each other to grab the tiniest of minority positions in various opportunities. Last week, for example, Philadelphia Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie announced that he was considering selling a small minority stake in his franchise (now valued at $7.5 billion) and he was flooded with interest. The NBA’s welcoming of private equity a few years ago may have been what started this trend, but the phenomenon is widespread across sport around the world. One has to wonder if we have entered into a period of “irrational exuberance” – and if and when this speculative investment bubble may eventually pop.
Nonetheless, countering this question is the undeniable and growing popularity of almost all sports, particularly women’s sports, as noted by FOS: (1) the NWSL set a single-game record with a crowd of 35,038 at Wrigley Field; (2) sellout crowd of 20,333 filled Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., for a Fever-Mystics game, representing the biggest WNBA turnout for a game since 2007; the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup registered a turnout of 34,028 in New York for the high-profile match between India and Pakistan, setting a new record for cricket in the U.S.; and (4) MLB drew a total of 108,956 for its two-game London Series between the Mets and Phillies.